It’s May 12, 2017 and I’m preparing the eulogy for Toronto’s Housing Market.  It hasn’t officially crashed yet.

It will crash imminently.

So in the destruction of Canada’s housing bubble, let’s see what went wrong.  Central Banks, The Bank of Canada, kept the interest rate way too low for way too long.  This spurred felonious construction of Condos and Houses that people didn’t need.  A lot of Toronto real estate is owned but vacant.

Politicians were happy with the arrangement because ostensibly cities were growing and the tax base from new construction was growing.

Politicians didn’t care that it made home ownership impossible for people entering the market and that it made housing oppressively expensive for those in need.

Eventually, as it always does, it catches up with them.  Home Capital Group, a Toronto based ‘lender of last resort’ is going belly up.

Just like in 2001 in the United States, Freddie Mac and Fanny May, lenders of last resort are the canaries in the coal mine.  With their death the rest of the market is imminent.

I’m sure in time, Politicians will turn to us to help them bail out of this quagmire.  Please don’t give them any money.  They caused this problem.  Don’t fund their recovery from it such that they can do it over and over again as has been done all through Toronto’s history.