Martin C. Winer

This is what happens when Martin gets tired of sending mass emails.

Dumb and DumberDumb:

Project Lifeline is a Bush administration initiative to give distressed mortgagees an additional month before their homes are foreclosed upon. This reprieve goes not only to subprime borrowers but to all distressed borrowers. The subtext to this move is that not only are subprime borrowers in distress. One month’s grace is dumb because the amount of debt that we’re dealing with coupled with the loss of equity from falling housing prices is not something that is going to resolve itself that quickly. This is akin to giving a starving man a rice cake. We all know that rice cakes are good only as coasters, so too is Project Lifeline.

Dumber:

Interest rate cuts are an even dumber idea. Last month the Fed cut rates by a staggering 1.25%. There is strong rumour that more cuts are coming. This is a dumber idea for a few reasons. First interest rate cuts are the cause of debenture spending. The reason we’re in the mess we’re in is because people are/were spending money they didn’t have. Next, lowered interest rates cause economic bubbles such as the housing bubble which is just in the process of bursting. Finally, interest rate cuts increase government debt. The way that the Fed lowers interest is by buying treasury bills with printed money. This devalues the currency and increases government debt. Thus, interest rate cuts are the cause of the current economic quagmire, and certainly aren’t the cure.

Dumbest

The US Stimulus Package is the dumbest possible idea. Under the package, people could see $600 to $1200 in tax rebates. First off, the amount itself is a pittance. Next, where is the money coming from? The money is being borrowed from China to be repaid with interest. Where is the money going? The money, it is hoped, will be spent into the economy to buy ‘stuff’. Where does all the stuff come from? The stuff comes from… China. The real underlying problem is that the US economy has shifted from a production based economy to a consumer based economy. Until you address that problem, any attempts to throw money at the problem will simply throw money in other people’s pockets. I’ll give the government some credit though, the US Stimulus Package does manage to stimulate an economy; perhaps the government will fund moving its citizens to Beijing where the positive effects can be felt.

I’ve been watching with horror as the US economy is reduced to socialism.  Few are asking how much this will cost.  Those who do ask are getting nonsense answers like 25 billion dollars.  The Savings and Loan crisis of the 90′s took 250 billion dollars to bail out.  This current crisis dwarfs that crisis by orders of magnitudes.  So let’s cut through the bull and look at some math.

The Government is now on the hook for 5 trillion dollars in loans.  The only way they can lose money is if people default on those loans AND the value of the underlying asset (the home) has depreciated since the time the loan was issued.

So let’s say that 3% of people default on their loans.  The government is now on the hook for 150 billion dollars.  The government will now try to sell those foreclosed houses at market value.  Suppose those houses were inflated by a factor of 2 (that is they’ve now lost 1/2 their value).  Now the government sells the foreclosed houses at half the price and they’re on the hook for the left over half.  Thus the cost to the government would be 75 billion dollars.  The formula is thus:

bailoutCost = totalValueMortgages * defaultRate * (1 – (1/inflationFactor))

Now the question is where do we come up with values for things like the defaultRate and inflationFactor? (The totalValueMortgages is given as 5 trillion dollars by the government.)

Google mortgage deliquency rates or mortgage default rates and you’ll find numbers ranging from 2-5,  (I took 3 as an average).  Next to figure out the inflation factor, look at this chart:
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2005/08/21/business/21real.graphic.html
and you’ll see that homes are around 2X inflated in value. 

So given these current numbers, the best case cost would be 75 billion dollars.  If the default rate increases or housing devalues beyond 2X the numbers could of course be much higher.  I welcome any polite criticism and/or suggestions for alterations.

Any fan of the film The Hunt for Red October will remember a discussion about the ‘Caterpillar Drive’ or Magneto Hydrodynamic Drive (MHD).  It’s sort of a jet engine for the water which electrifies the water (creating ions) and pushes them along using magnets.

You can build a simple MHD using nothing more than a battery, some wire, warm water, salt and pepper.  Here is a video of one I built.

SAFETY:  The bubbles coming off the water are hydrogen and oxygen gas.  Use in a well ventilated area, away from sparks.


Here is another one:

Nursing Affirms Life in Face of Death

Like generals and their armies, doctors and nurses are essential to healthcare

MARTIN C. WINER

Recently, my family had the misfortune of experiencing the loss of a loved one as the result of a tragic accident. The diagnosis and prognosis were clear cut: “Catastrophic brain injury, no hope of recovery.” Since the diagnosis was so clear, I’d like to focus on the frontline healthcare professionals, the nurses, who cared so dearly for our loved one — and all of us.

There was a two-day period between the delivery of this terrible diagnosis and the eventual end. During those two days I witnessed everyday yet monumental acts of courage and caring on the part of the nursing staff. The critical care ward is an open ward. Everyone in there is suffering terribly in one form or another. Just entering the ward requires a level of spiritual strength that common folk can only summon under extreme circumstances. Signs on patients’ beds like “Exposed Bone Flap” and patients hooked in to many machines through a nexus of wires that looks like the back of a 70’s stereo set make for a scene not suited for the faint of heart. Just the same, each bed has a sign giving more human details about who the person is and their family. Each patient is respected as a person, a vibrant individual — much beyond the collection of bones, flesh, and sinews in distress. The nurses’ positive attitudes, steadfastness about their work, and smiles restored a level of humanity to a place otherwise dank with illness, and miraculously made it almost seem normal.

When the doctors caringly and compassionately delivered the news to our family, it was a nurse who had a box of tissues at the ready. When we first went into the ward to see our loved one, we were all afraid of exactly what we would witness. As we walked through timidly, a nurse gently patted another patient’s chest encouraging him to cough, speaking to him gently, even though he was clearly unconscious. I knew at that moment that in the midst of death and illness, life had an immutable force.

As the family gathered around our loved one, we were clearly in their way. Nurses were scurrying about tending to wounds and machines. But we were never made to feel we were in the way; we were made to feel that we were part of the caring that was taking place. The nurses made us feel that our presence was as beneficial as the life-sustaining equipment that was strewn around us. Both the nurses and doctors chorused in unison that our speaking to our loved one, even though the medical evidence suggested she couldn’t hear us, was necessary and helpful to all.

As our legs faltered under the emotional and physical strain, chairs magically appeared. As our stomachs gurgled because we had forgotten to eat, sandwiches were procured from the staff kitchen. Water and juice appeared in our hands without having to ask for them. Intuitively, the nurses seemed plugged into our digestive tracts. They urged us to sleep when it was the last thing we could think of. As we did not want to leave the hospital, they found a room nearby for us to spend the night, and supplied linens, doing their best to make it as comfortable as possible.

As our hands shook holding the hand of our loved one in ours, nurses’ hands steadied them with theirs. As we started to break down, nurses’ hugs steadied us. Hugs with people we had never met until that day seemed completely normal. We were all in a family of people dealing with life’s most challenging situations and questions. Even the one nurse who had a more curt manner, warning us not to enter the ward unannounced, explained that she was only concerned that we may see a procedure on our loved one that we were not prepared for.

The decision to cease administration of the drugs that were keeping our loved one’s body alive was a medical decision; mercifully, we weren’t asked to make that call. That night, a nurse was there every second to watch all the displays and gauges to ensure there wasn’t any sign of distress or discomfort. Decades earlier, a set of disparate heart cells, each beating to their own rhythm, found each other and started to beat together, sustaining my loved one for all the decades since. There is no spiritual vaccination one can administer to confer immunity to watching those vital signs whittle themselves down to zero, to flatness. Each of us in the family were lost in the darkness, beating to a panicked drum. We found the power to uphold ourselves when we connected with the nurses.

When we think of jobs that require courage, police work, fire fighters, and ambulance paramedics come to mind — and rightly so. Just the same, nursing requires a daily measure of spiritual courage that is hard to quantify. Leaving the hospital, I asked myself: “Why would anyone be a nurse?” It couldn’t be for the money. It couldn’t be for the hours, nor could it be for the ease of work. Many people find a sense of purpose in their work and in dedicating themselves to a business or a vocation. It became clear to me that nurses are not simply dedicated to nursing; they are dedicated to all of us.

Martin C. Winer is a freelance writer in Toronto. He enjoys writing articles about social action. More details can be found on his blog: www.martincwiner.com

Pull-quote:
The nurses made us feel that our presence was as beneficial as the life-sustaining equipment that was strewn around us

PDF Conversion

Over the years I’ve tried a few tools for converting from various file formats to PDF.  Fortunately, I chanced upon this one:
http://www.download.com/PrimoPDF/3000-10743_4-10264577.html?tag=lst-0-1

What a great tool!  All you need do is install it and it shows up as a printer that you can print to.  Simply print from any application and a popup dialog box will ask you where to save your PDF file.  You needn’t worry about spyware or malware either.  It’s certified spyware free by CNET.

Take a look at the terrific job it did on my Math paper about Prime Constellation Counting Functions.

Number of Prime Constellations