4 thoughts on “Case Shiller Index”

1. First Comment here
   http://www.housingviews.com/2012/03/28/speed-vs-accuracy/
   follows.

   I write to note long-term observations/reckoning, with substantial ‘internal consistency’, that includes inferred soundness of S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index.

   In August 2006, The New York Times published this chart of national home price index, inflation-adjusted.
   http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2006/08/26/weekinreview/27leon_graph2.html
   The NYT straightforwardly observed: “Two gains in recent decades were followed by returns to levels consistent since the late 1950’s.”. (NOTE this remarkable ‘flatness’ — over 1958-1998, inflation-adjusted, using CPI-U, average home price was UNchanged, while CPI-U rose a factor 5.6)!
   This inflation-adjusted history is updated by me in the first chart here
   http://homepage.mac.com/ttsmyf/RD_RJShomes_PSav.html
   and sourcing since 1987 is the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index — see last chart.

   The quoted-above NYT observation, plus acceptance of Shiller’s ‘we are not running out of land [USA, nationally]’, allows the following description.
   Since the late 1950s, USA national average home price changes have simply followed consumer price inflation, except for TEMPORARY price bubbles.
   This is simple (Occam’s razor!) … ought-to-be average home price changes follow price changes in the usual: cereal and milk and bluejeans and wheels, etc.

   The foregoing internal consistency and simplicitly are consistent with soundnesses of both S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, and CPI-U.

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